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US Oil Weekly Update: Agencies Slashes Demand Outlook
In the growing global trade fear, with the tug-of-war tariffs between US and China, The International Energy Agency (IEA) and The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut their outlook on oil demand for 2025. In OPECs Monthly Oil Market Report the Organization cut the demand outlook for 2025 by 100 000 barrels per day, from 1,4 million to 1,3 million barrels per day in 2025.
Total 2025 oil demand in OPECs prognoses comes in at 105,6 million barrels per day with most of the demand growth coming from non-OECD countries.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) slashed the demand outlook for 2025 by 300 000 barrels per day, from over 1 million too 730 000 barrels per day. China and the US with forecasted growth of 160 000 and 30 000 barrels per day according to IEAs Oil Market Report.
Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.
US Crude inventories and production.
US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels in the week ending April 11, with market forecasters predicting between 0.8 and 1 million barrel-increase in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 17.1 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.564 million barrels per day during the week ending April 11, 2025, 64 000 bpd less compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 86.3 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Figure 2. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 839.9 million Barrels.
Figure 3. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 442.9 million Barrels.
US Rig Activity.
The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count decreased by seven last week, currently at 583. Oil focused rigs decreased by nine last week, at 480 active rigs. Gas focused rigs increased by one, now at 97 active rigs. Miscellaneous was increased by one last week now at six active rigs.
Figure 4. Active Oil Focused Rigs Decreased by Nine Last Week now at 480
Figure 5. Gas Focused Rigs increased from 96 to 97 Active Rigs.
Figure 6. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased by Seven Last Week, now at 583.
Figure 7. Rig Count in Major Basins.
Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.
By the Numbers April 16, 2025.
Disclaimer
This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.
