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The scheduled 57^th JMMC (Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee) and the 38^th ONOMM (OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting) for December 2, 2024, has been rescheduled to Thursday, December 5, 2024, via videoconference due to several Ministers attending the 45^th Gulf Summit in Kuwait City.

Expected discussions on the table for the Ministerial videoconference is the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts made by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman also known by the moniker the OPEC-Eight.

November 3 OPEC+ decided to postpone the gradual release of 2.2 million bpd, from December to January. The planned release of additional barrels is 180 000 bpd over a twelve-month period with options to pause the unwinding depending on market outlook. The OPEC+ group are currently holding back 5.7 percent of global oil demand with their almost 6 million bpd production cuts.

Another topic for discussion is United Arab Emirates increased oil production capacity and their oil output hike of 300 000 bpd agreed upon in June this year, which is scheduled to hit the markets in January 2025.

Despite the groups significant effort to maintain higher oil price, market fundamentals have weighed heavy on prices thorough 2024 and with an expected ample supplied market for 2025 there is little to no leeway for the oil producers to release additional barrels in the market. The forecast shows a surplus market in the first quarter of 2025, with nearly a million-bpd deficit in peak demand season in the summer months (Figure 3.)

OPEC+ has near 6 million bpd of spare capacity withheld from the market serving as a cushion against supply disruption due to geopolitical tension. The OPEC+ production cuts has also resulted in loss of market shares to other major producing countries. Except the pandemic years OPEC production is at decades low.

Figure 4. OPEC and OPEC+ Wellhead Production Data.

With looming bearish pressure, and weak demand signal coming from China future balances leaves the petroleum cartel with little elbow space to maneuver the market. GE Briefings forecast that OPEC will agree on postponing the release of the 2.2 million bpd cut from OPEC-Eight on December 5 virtual meeting. OPEC will wait until the second quarter of 2025 before releasing additional barrels in the market.

Figure 5. Global and OECD Inventory Data

En vandrelysten finansnerd med tydelige spor av graphomania og bibliofili i blodet. Hans første møte med markedet bortsett fra noen kornete aksjekurser på 28" tekst TV, var igjennom Odin fondene i 2000 – 2001. Der diversifiserte han pengene ut på ODIN Offshore, ODIN Norden og ODIN Finland, helt tilfeldig. Etter å først dyppet stortåen forsiktig ned i vannet ble han etter hvert hektet. I 2002 gjorde han sin første handel i en enkeltaksje, Selskapet hadde ticker symbolet, STL- eller Statoil på folkemunne. Der kastet han alle kortene i panikk etter en liten korreksjon noen måneder senere, han elsket det! Nå kombinerer han sine to hobbyer, skriving og finans og smelter dem sammen til en lidenskap.