Oljerapporter
(+) US Oil Weekly Update: Steepest Decline Since June 2024
Crude oil prices surged over 8 dollars a barrel on Friday after the strategic Israeli attack towards Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Fear of escalation, fear of disruption to oil supply from the Middle East and fear of a wider regional war boosted oil prices Friday.
During the last weekend the two nations traded blows tit-for tat without causing harm to key oil infrastructure easing the risk of oil disruption. Escalating rhetoric from President Trump calling Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei an easy target and demanding “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” from Iran in a social media post.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement “The Americans should know that the Iranian nation is not one to surrender,” published on Wednesday. “Any military incursion by the United States will undoubtedly result in irreparable damage.” This back-and-forth poisonous rhetoric has put the fear in the market that the US could be dragged in to the conflict and Iran`s only response would be to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Energy Information Administration EIA, published its weekly report on Wednesday showing a massive draw in commercial crude inventories. Oil inventories dropped 11.5 million barrels in the week ending June 13 according to EIA data, the steepest decline since June 2024. A drop in net import and higher refinery demand in preparation for the driving season has put pressure on crude inventories, and with crude inputs close to 17 million barrels per day crude inventories will fall.
US domestic production increased by 3000 barrels per day last week a plateauing number, and with still declining activity in the US oil industry the domestic production will suffer even more by the end of this year.
Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate Contracts.
Figure 2. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.
US Crude inventories and production.
US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 11.5 million barrels in the week ending June 13, with market forecasters predicting between 1.5 and 2 million barrel-decrease in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 10 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 36.2 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.862 million barrels per day during the week ending June 13, 2025, 365 Kbpd lower compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 93.2 percent of their operable capacity last week. American production increased by 3 Kbpd last week at 13,431 million barrels per day, still a plateauing number and well below the production peak of December 2024, but 231 Kbpd higher than a year ago.
Figure 3. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 823.2 million Barrels.
Figure 4. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 420.9 million Barrels.
US Rig Activity.
The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count decreased by four last week, currently at 555. Oil focused rigs decreased by three last week, at 439 active rigs. Gas focused rigs decreased by one last week now at 113 active rigs. Miscellaneous were flat last week still at three active rigs.
Figure 5. Active Oil Focused Rigs Decreased by Four Last Week now at 439
Figure 6. Active Gas Focused Rigs Increased by One Last Week now at 113
Figure 7. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased by Four Last Week, now at 555.
Figure 8. Rig Count in Major Basins.
Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.
By the Numbers June 18, 2025.
Disclaimer
This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.
