US Oil Weekly Update: Oil Price Continues to Tumble

Oil futures fell to two-week lows earlier this week and continue to tumble as fresh tariff-related concerns that oil demand will suffer in the near term. Consumer confidence in the US continues to decline as lack of progress toward trade negotiations between the US and China weighs heavy on commodities and manufacturing data.

Bearish reports on the steep decline in cargos hitting Californian ports, which handle most US imports from China, showing sign of impact from tariffs and trade war between the worlds two largest economies sparked by US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day.

The possibility of accelerated supply increase from The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in OPEC+ has put another pressure on oil prices on the supply side. On May 5^th the oil producers have scheduled a meeting to discuss monthly output increase which now rests at 140 000 bpd, but some members aim to elevate that number to 410 000 bpd.

Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.

US Crude inventories and production.

US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels in the week ending April 25, with market forecasters predicting between 0.5 and 0.2 million barrel-increase in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 20.5 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.078 million barrels per day during the week ending April 25, 2025, 189 000 bpd more compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 88.6 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 839 million Barrels.

Figure 3. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 440.4 million Barrels.

US Rig Activity.

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count increased by two last week, currently at 587. Oil focused rigs increased by two last week, at 483 active rigs. Gas focused rigs increased by one, now at 99 active rigs. Miscellaneous decreased by one last week now at five active rigs.

Figure 4. Active Oil Focused Rigs Increased by One Last Week now at 483

Figure 5. Gas Focused Rigs Increased from 98 to 99 Active Rigs.

Figure 6. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Increased by Two Last Week, now at 587.

Figure 7. Rig Count in Major Basins.

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers April 30, 2025.

Disclaimer

This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.

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