US Oil Weekly Update: All Eyes on Fundamentals

Crude oil prices surged following the back-and-forth attacks between Israel and Iran, with Brent gaining 15% in the heat of the conflict. When the Americans engaged with direct attacks on Iran in a quest to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, the world stood still while waiting for Teheran`s response.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow strait between Oman and Iran is the world’s most important bottleneck for shipping oil and gas with approximately 25% of seaborn crude passing through daily. After the US bombing mission in Iran, the possibility of Teheran disrupting the narrow passageway increased, but when Iran`s telegraphed strike on a US military base in Qatar the air went out of the oil price balloon.

A short time after the attack in Qatar, President Trump thanked Iran for the heads-up prior to the weak strike, and a ceasefire were shortly after announced by American officials.

Since Monday West Texas Intermediate has dropped from $77 to $65 per barrel, erasing all risk premium baked in the oil price during the conflict.

In a few days the global oil market has gone from breathtaking threats against the Strait of Hormuz to focusing on market fundamentals.

The US Energy Information Administration EIA delivered their weekly petroleum status report for the week ending June 20, on Wednesday.

Another big weekly draw in US commercial crude stocks lifted WTI, but the benchmark crude dropped later in the session. At 415.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 11% below

the five-year average for this time of year, and 45 million barrels lower than a year ago. With summer demand around the corner and the US domestic production stagnating we expect continuous draws in the weeks to come.

Baker Hughes rig count June 20 showed another decline in active rigs in the US, now at 554. The prolific Permian basin dropped down to 271 active rigs down from 308 a year ago.

Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate Contracts.

Figure 2. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.

US Crude inventories and production.

US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels in the week ending June 20, with market forecasters predicting between 0.5 and 1 million barrel-decrease in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 11 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 45.6 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.987 million barrels per day during the week ending June 20, 2025, 125 Kbpd higher compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 94.7 percent of their operable capacity last week. American production increased by 4 Kbpd last week at 13,435 million barrels per day, still a plateauing number and well below the production peak of December 2024, but 235 Kbpd higher than a year ago.

Figure 3. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 817.6 million Barrels.

Figure 4. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 415.1 million Barrels.

US Rig Activity.

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count decreased by one last week, currently at 554. Oil focused rigs decreased by one last week, at 438 active rigs. Gas focused rigs decreased by two last week now at 111 active rigs. Miscellaneous increased by two last week now at five active rigs.

Figure 5. Active Oil Focused Rigs Decreased by One Last Week now at 438

Figure 6. Active Gas Focused Rigs Increased by Two Last Week now at 111

Figure 7. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased by One Last Week, now at 554.

Figure 8. Rig Count in Major Basins.

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers June 25, 2025.

Disclaimer

This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.

En vandrelysten finansnerd med tydelige spor av graphomania og bibliofili i blodet. Hans første møte med markedet bortsett fra noen kornete aksjekurser på 28" tekst TV, var igjennom Odin fondene i 2000 – 2001. Der diversifiserte han pengene ut på ODIN Offshore, ODIN Norden og ODIN Finland, helt tilfeldig. Etter å først dyppet stortåen forsiktig ned i vannet ble han etter hvert hektet. I 2002 gjorde han sin første handel i en enkeltaksje, Selskapet hadde ticker symbolet, STL- eller Statoil på folkemunne. Der kastet han alle kortene i panikk etter en liten korreksjon noen måneder senere, han elsket det! Nå kombinerer han sine to hobbyer, skriving og finans og smelter dem sammen til en lidenskap.