(+) US Oil Update: Significant Build in US Crude Stocks

Benchmark crude prices has gained momentum this week with increasing uncertainty when and where the Israeli response to Iran will take place. Israel continues to battle on multiple fronts as other western countries seeks to calm the situation to prevent further escalation. The US election is only a couple weeks away with traders looking for answers on how the outcome will impact oil prices and the geopolitical uncertainties.

Market fundamentals are still on the weaker side as for supply and demand balance, with OPECs release of voluntary cuts starting in December. The release of the 2.2 million bpd cut would bring an additional 180 kbpd monthly over a 12-month period.

Figure 1: WTI has gained Momentum This Week.

US Crude inventories and production

US commercial crude oil inventories had a significant build of 5.474-million-barrel in the week ending October 18, while market forecasters expecting an increase of 700 thousand barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 4.9 million barrels higher than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending October 18, 2024, which was a 329 Kbpd more than the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 89.5 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2: US Crude Stocks including SPR at 810.6 million Barrels

Figure 3: US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 426 million Barrels

US Rig Activity

A small decline in the total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count. Down from a total of 586 active rigs, to 585 active rigs. Oil focused rigs had an increase last week, up from 481 to 482. Gas focused rigs decreased by two from 101 to 99 active rigs. Miscellaneous rigs remained flat at four active rigs.

Figure 4: Active Oil Focused Rigs Increased From 481 to 482

Figure 5: Gas Focused Rigs Decreased From 101 to 99 Active Rigs

Figure 5: Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased from 586 to 585

Figure 6: Rig Count in Major Basins

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers October 23, 2024

En vandrelysten finansnerd med tydelige spor av graphomania og bibliofili i blodet. Hans første møte med markedet bortsett fra noen kornete aksjekurser på 28" tekst TV, var igjennom Odin fondene i 2000 – 2001. Der diversifiserte han pengene ut på ODIN Offshore, ODIN Norden og ODIN Finland, helt tilfeldig. Etter å først dyppet stortåen forsiktig ned i vannet ble han etter hvert hektet. I 2002 gjorde han sin første handel i en enkeltaksje, Selskapet hadde ticker symbolet, STL- eller Statoil på folkemunne. Der kastet han alle kortene i panikk etter en liten korreksjon noen måneder senere, han elsket det! Nå kombinerer han sine to hobbyer, skriving og finans og smelter dem sammen til en lidenskap.