(+) US Oil Weekly Update: US threatens the IEA- Reform or Withdraw

West Texas Intermediate has dropped 2,5% in the last five trading sessions with concerns regarding President Trumps tariff threats against major trading partners.

Crude benchmarks jumped at the end of last week as expectations of sanctions against Russia gained traction after President Trump said he planned to make a major statement on Russia in NBC phone interview.

At the start of the week Trumps statement on Russia disappointed the market with no new sanctions on Kremlin but with a threat against Russia to push Moscow towards a peace deal with Ukraine. The US President gave his Russian counterpart 50 days to reach a deal with Ukraine or face the consequences of crippling sanctions. President Trump gave Russia`s oil and gas costumers a fair warning and a threat of secondary tariffs on countries that do business with Russia if there is no peace deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days. China and India is the biggest buyers of Russian oil with 2 million barrels per day each.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticized the Paris-based the International Energy Agency in a Bloomberg interview and stated the US may depart the agency. The IEA were established in response to the 1970s oil crisis forecasting global supply and demand but has since then shifting to become an advocate of the energy transition.

“We will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates or we will withdraw,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during the Bloomberg interview Tuesday. “My strong preference is to reform it.”

The IEA gets millions of dollars in US funding in line with Trump’s broader pro-fossil fuels thrust.

US domestic production declined again last week. Down from 13,385 million barrels to 13,375 million barrels a day. The domestic production is still above the levels 12 months ago, but with the activity level in the US in a steep decline the production will be affected at some point.

Commercial crude inventories declined by 3,9 million barrels last week according to EIA data, after two weeks of significant build in inventories. The US commercial crude inventories are still 8% below the five-year average for this time of the year.

US activity is still declining according to Baker Hughes rig count. Active oil focused rigs have dropped by 58 rigs year to date, and the total rig count has dropped by 52 active rigs so far in 2025.

The Tuesday API inventory report shocked oil traders with initial report on X indicating a record 19,1-million-barrel inventory build. Later different inventory data emerged with the much lower number of an 800 000-barrel build.

Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate Contracts.

Figure 2. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.

US Crude inventories and production.

US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels in the week ending July 11, with market forecasters predicting between 0.5 and 1 million barrel-decrease in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 8 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 18.1 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.849 million barrels per day during the week ending July 11, 2025, 158 Kbpd lower compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 93.9 percent of their operable capacity last week. American production decreased by 10 Kbpd last week at 13,375 million barrels per day still declining production and activity in the US.

Figure 3. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 824.9 million Barrels.

Figure 4. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 422.2 million Barrels.

US Rig Activity.

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count decreased by two last week, currently at 537. Oil focused rigs decreased by one last week, at 424 active rigs. Gas focused rigs were flat last week still at 108 active rigs. Miscellaneous decreased by one last week now at five active rigs.

Figure 5. Active Oil Focused Rigs Decreased by One Last Week now at 424

Figure 6. Active Gas Focused Rigs Were Flat Last Week Still at 108

Figure 7. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased by Two Last Week, now at 537.

Figure 8. Rig Count in Major Basins.

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers July 16, 2025.

Disclaimer

This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.

En vandrelysten finansnerd med tydelige spor av graphomania og bibliofili i blodet. Hans første møte med markedet bortsett fra noen kornete aksjekurser på 28" tekst TV, var igjennom Odin fondene i 2000 – 2001. Der diversifiserte han pengene ut på ODIN Offshore, ODIN Norden og ODIN Finland, helt tilfeldig. Etter å først dyppet stortåen forsiktig ned i vannet ble han etter hvert hektet. I 2002 gjorde han sin første handel i en enkeltaksje, Selskapet hadde ticker symbolet, STL- eller Statoil på folkemunne. Der kastet han alle kortene i panikk etter en liten korreksjon noen måneder senere, han elsket det! Nå kombinerer han sine to hobbyer, skriving og finans og smelter dem sammen til en lidenskap.