(+) US Oil Weekly Update: Another Weekly Build in US Crude Inventories

Concerns regarding Iranian and Russian oil supplies with maximum pressure and new, tougher sanctions helped oil prices climb to a two-week high earlier this week. Rising tensions in the Middle East is also a factor in elevating oil prices. The fragile cease-fire in Gaza could be terminated if the hostage deadline isn’t met.

Weighing on oil prices is President Trumps latest tariffs could weaken global growth and with that global energy demand. Tariffs and counter-tariffs tug-of-war between trading partners is creating uncertainties over global demand, and volatility is expected.

Figure 1: Another Inventory Build Puts Pressure on Crude Prices

US Crude inventories and production

US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 4.1 million barrels in the week ending February 7, with market forecasters predicting between 2.5 and 3 million barrel-increase in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 11.6 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day during the week ending February 7, 2025, which was 82 Kbpd higher than the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 85 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2: US Crude Stocks including SPR at 823.2 million Barrels

Figure 3: US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 427.9 million Barrels

US Rig Activity

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count increased by four rigs last week, currently at 586. Oil focused rigs increased last week, from 479 to 480 active rigs. Gas focused rigs decreased by two, now at 100 active rigs. Miscellaneous increased last week now at six active rigs.

Figure 4: Active Oil Focused Rigs Increased From 479 to 480

Figure 5: Gas Focused Rigs Increased from 98 to 100 Active Rigs

Figure 6: Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Increased by Four Last Week, now at 586

Figure 7: Rig Count in Major Basins.

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers February 12, 2025