(+) US Oil Weekly Update: Another 2 million barrel increase

Oil prices has been on a steady decline as bearish sentiments continues to impact prices, with the WTI closing below the $70 mark. OPEC+ compliance seems to improve and output from members with production quotas fell by 370 kbpd in October to 33.57 million bpd. The overall OPEC+ production was up by 140 kbpd in October to 40.58 million bpd, a number impacted by the rebound in Libya.

OPEC adjusted its 2024 oil demand forecast, and for the fourth consecutive month cut their global oil demand forecasts for 2024. OPEC estimates oil demand growth of 1.82 million bpd for 2024, down from 1.93 million bpd in last month market report. Lower expectations in Chinese demand growth account for most of OPEC’s downgrade. Chinese expected demand growth by OPEC is 455 kbpd down from previous estimates of 583 kbpd to an average of 16.8 million bpd.

WTI Future Contracts

Figure 1. Bearish Outlook Drag Down Crude Oil Prices

US Crude inventories and production

US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.09 million-barrel in the week ending November 8, while market forecasters expecting a 1.85 million barrels increase in crude stocks. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 9.7 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million barrels per day during the week ending November 8, 2024, which was 175 Kbpd more than the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 91.4 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 817.5 million Barrels

Figure 3. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 429.7 million Barrels

US Rig Activity

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count remains flat for the week at 585. Oil focused rigs was flat last week, at 479 rigs. Gas focused rigs was also flat at 102 active rigs. Miscellaneous rigs remained flat at four active rigs.

Figure 4. Active Oil Focused Rigs Flat at 479

Figure 5. Gas Focused Rigs Flat at 102 Active Rigs

Figure 6. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Flat for the Week at 585

Figure 7. Rig Count in Major Basins

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers November 14, 2024

En vandrelysten finansnerd med tydelige spor av graphomania og bibliofili i blodet. Hans første møte med markedet bortsett fra noen kornete aksjekurser på 28" tekst TV, var igjennom Odin fondene i 2000 – 2001. Der diversifiserte han pengene ut på ODIN Offshore, ODIN Norden og ODIN Finland, helt tilfeldig. Etter å først dyppet stortåen forsiktig ned i vannet ble han etter hvert hektet. I 2002 gjorde han sin første handel i en enkeltaksje, Selskapet hadde ticker symbolet, STL- eller Statoil på folkemunne. Der kastet han alle kortene i panikk etter en liten korreksjon noen måneder senere, han elsket det! Nå kombinerer han sine to hobbyer, skriving og finans og smelter dem sammen til en lidenskap.