(+) US Oil Weekly Update: Another 2 million-Barrel Increase

Oil prices were relatively flat this last week, with the WTI gaining approximately $1 per barrel or a 1.5% increase. The US benchmark still trailing below the $70 mark as the fundamentals keeps battling geopolitics.

The narrow price rang in crude oil prices could be the market digesting the escalation between Russia and the allies in the west with the US approving ATACMS missiles for Ukraine. The Biden administration gave Kiev the green light to fire long range weapons against targets inside Russia.

In the first half of 2025 the oil market is facing a surplus in liquids supply; the market is increasingly getting better supplied as reflected in oil prices. Flat prices are sliding with the prompt premium over later deliveries narrowing. With that the market seems to push and pull between geopolitics and fundamentals. Oil prices haven’t seen the bottom of the barrel yet as new lows are in the horizon, but heed this warning, geopolitics can flip this view without notice.

Figure 1: Bearish Outlook Drag Down Crude Oil Prices

US Crude inventories and production

US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 500 000 barrels in the week ending November 15, hitting market forecasters predictions at 400 000 barrels increase in crude stocks. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 17.8 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.23 million barrels per day during the week ending November 15, 2024, which was 270 Kbpd less than the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 90.2 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2: US Crude Stocks including SPR at 819.5 million Barrels

Figure 3: US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 430.3 million Barrels

US Rig Activity

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count decreased by one for the week, now at 584. Oil focused rigs decreased by one last week, now at 478 rigs. Gas focused rigs were also decreased by one, now at 101 active rigs. Miscellaneous rigs gained one last week, now at five active rigs.

Figure 4: Active Oil Focused Rigs Flat at 478

Figure 5: Gas Focused Rigs Flat at 101 Active Rigs

Figure 5: Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased by One at 584

Figure 6: Rig Count in Major Basins

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers November 20, 2024

En vandrelysten finansnerd med tydelige spor av graphomania og bibliofili i blodet. Hans første møte med markedet bortsett fra noen kornete aksjekurser på 28" tekst TV, var igjennom Odin fondene i 2000 – 2001. Der diversifiserte han pengene ut på ODIN Offshore, ODIN Norden og ODIN Finland, helt tilfeldig. Etter å først dyppet stortåen forsiktig ned i vannet ble han etter hvert hektet. I 2002 gjorde han sin første handel i en enkeltaksje, Selskapet hadde ticker symbolet, STL- eller Statoil på folkemunne. Der kastet han alle kortene i panikk etter en liten korreksjon noen måneder senere, han elsket det! Nå kombinerer han sine to hobbyer, skriving og finans og smelter dem sammen til en lidenskap.