US Oil Weekly Update: Will OPEC+ Accelerate Oil Production?

Benchmark crude prices tumble with growing tensions in OPEC+. Cohesion within the group have been faltering lately, and discontent among OPEC+ members over compliance with production quotas has sparked questions regarding increased output.

Members of the organization has suggested accelerating increase of oil production again from June. Kazakhstan the notorious overproducer has, on multiple occasions exceeded its oil output quotas over the past 12 months, frustrating other members of the organization. Now the country’s newly appointed energy minister Erlan Akkenzhenov has stated that they will prioritize national interests over OPEC+ quotas. The growing tension within the group is a stark reminder of when Angola left the organization in 2023, and when Qatar left in 2018.

Kazakhstan is unable to decrease production in the giant Tengiz field because it is controlled and operated by the US oil major Chevron, according to the newly appointed energy minister, Erlan Akkenzhenov.

Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.

US Crude inventories and production.

US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels in the week ending April 18, with market forecasters predicting between 0.5 and 0.2 million barrel-decrease in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 5 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 10.5 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.889 million barrels per day during the week ending April 18, 2025, 326 000 bpd more compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 88.1 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 840.6 million Barrels.

Figure 3. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 443.1 million Barrels.

US Rig Activity.

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count increased by two last week, currently at 585. Oil focused rigs increased by one last week, at 481 active rigs. Gas focused rigs increased by one, now at 98 active rigs. Miscellaneous flat last week now at six active rigs.

Figure 4. Active Oil Focused Rigs Increased by One Last Week now at 481

Figure 5. Gas Focused Rigs Increased from 97 to 98 Active Rigs.

Figure 6. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Increased by Two Last Week, now at 585.

Figure 7. Rig Count in Major Basins.

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers April 23, 2025.

Disclaimer

This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.

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