US Oil Weekly Update: Higher Price, Weaker Fundamentals

The US president Donald Trump threatened potential buyers of Russian crude with secondary tariffs last Sunday. A head of Trump`s fuming statement Vladimir Putin had expressed concerns regarding the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy`s legitimacy as a negotiating partner.

Donald Trump was angry and pissed off with his Russian counterpart, and many has speculated in a souring relationship between the men. Later in Air Force One the US president told reporters in calmer tone, that he was disappointed with Putin and urge the Russian president to start negotiating a deal with Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Donald Trump also butted heads with Iranian supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after threatening to bomb Iran if they don`t signs a deal that renounces nuclear weapons. Trump also stated that he is considering secondary tariffs on Iran.

In an announcement on Monday, Khamenei said, If they commit any mischief, they will surely receive a strong reciprocal blow.» Iran’s president said Sunday that the Islamic Republic rejected direct negotiations with the United States.

Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.

US Crude inventories and production.

US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels in the week ending March 28, with market forecasters predicting between 1.8 and 2 million barrel-decrease in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 11.6 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.558 million barrels per day during the week ending March 28, 2025, 192 000 bpd less compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 86 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 836.9 million Barrels.

Figure 3. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 439.8 million Barrels.

US Rig Activity.

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count decreased by one last week, currently at 592. Oil focused rigs decreased by two last week, at 484 active rigs. Gas focused rigs increased by one, now at 103 active rigs. Miscellaneous was flat last week still at five active rigs.

Figure 4. Active Oil Focused Rigs Decreased by Two Last Week now at 484

Figure 5. Gas Focused Rigs Increased from 102 to 103 Active Rigs.

Figure 6. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased by One Last Week, now at 592.

Figure 7. Rig Count in Major Basins.

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers April 2, 2025.

Disclaimer

This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.

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